Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
