A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
